JPMorgan says SK Hynix selloff fears are overdone ahead of 2026 Q3 catalysts

SK Hynix may see mid-term market sentiment improve as investors get earlier clarity on shareholder returns and the company sustains its HBM (high-bandwidth memory used in AI chips) competitiveness, JPMorgan said. The bank argued concerns around the chipmaker's recent share-price weakness are excessive and identified two main catalysts by the end of the third quarter of 2026: a formal shareholder return plan due by end-September and confirmation of updated HBM contract pricing around the same time. SK Hynix has already moved the timing of its shareholder return announcement forward from "within the year" to the end of the third quarter. JPMorgan estimates the company will generate more than 800 trillion won in cumulative free cash flow over the next three years, giving it ample capacity for shareholder returns. Including gains such as proceeds from a Kioxia stake sale, it said SK Hynix's shareholder return scale could exceed that of other global memory-chip companies. The company also plans to spend about 54 trillion won on infrastructure, including 35.2 trillion won for the Yongin Y2 DRAM (volatile memory chip) plant and 19.1 trillion won for the Cheongju M17 NAND (flash memory storage) plant. On reports that SK Hynix's HBM4 pricing is 50% below rivals, JPMorgan said that characterization is inaccurate and has fueled excessive market anxiety. It expects SK Hynix's HBM prices in 2026 to rise less than 40% year on year because the company needs to prioritize higher-margin long-term supply contracts for DDR5, LPDDR5 and NAND, while managing its relationship with its biggest customer, Nvidia, from the standpoint of multiyear cooperation and long-term procurement. Because HBM is typically repriced annually, the bank said short-term pricing becomes less important once three- to five-year long-term contract orders are secured.

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