Bitfinex says Bitcoin rebound hinges on macro relief as ETF inflows return

Bitcoin buying is returning, but the latest rebound is still being driven mainly by improving macro conditions rather than crypto-specific catalysts, Bitfinex said in its latest report. The exchange said easing geopolitical tensions, lower oil prices and a cooling U.S. labor market helped lift risk assets, pushing Bitcoin toward the top of the $62,000 to $65,000 range. Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged net inflows for five straight trading days, taking in about $865.3 million and absorbing roughly 13,300 BTC, versus only about 3,150 BTC of new network supply over the same period. Even so, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC last week, while on-chain data (blockchain transaction records) shows about 1.79 million BTC has a cost basis concentrated between $62,000 and $65,000, creating notable overhead supply. Bitfinex said U.S. July nonfarm payrolls (a measure of job creation) weakened and earlier months were revised lower, cutting the market's perceived chance of a September Fed rate hike to 43.9% and helping short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar fall, but 30-year Treasury yields stayed above 5.2%, reflecting persistent worries about inflation and expanding government debt. Ethereum ETF inflows also continued, signaling institutional money is returning to crypto, though in a more concentrated and cautious way. Bitfinex said Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound unless ETF inflows keep outpacing market selling pressure and softer inflation data pulls long-dated Treasury yields lower.

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