Arthur Hayes says stronger yen plan could lift Bitcoin and crypto

Arthur Hayes said his article "Yen-quake" will examine how "Buffalo Bill Bessent" plans to influence the dollar-yen exchange rate and restart money printing, a shift he argues would boost Bitcoin and the broader crypto market as dollar liquidity rises. Hayes said the yen's long decline over the past decade helped drive gains across global asset markets, but argued that trend will eventually end. He described the yen as the world's most undervalued currency and a political flashpoint for the United States, China and Japanese voters. Hayes laid out three ways the yen could strengthen: the Bank of Japan sharply raising interest rates so the short-end rate gap with the dollar disappears; domestic institutions such as GPIF changing mandates to sell overseas assets and buy local ones; or, in his preferred scenario, Japan's Ministry of Finance using U.S. Treasuries in repo transactions with the Federal Reserve through the FIMA repo facility (a Fed tool for foreign official holders of Treasuries), obtaining dollars and then selling those dollars for yen in the foreign-exchange market. Hayes said U.S. and Japanese monetary policy officials carried out a joint exchange-rate operation two weeks ago, calling it intervention more politely, and said U.S. Treasury Secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent wants higher counterparty limits for the FIMA repo facility so Japan's Ministry of Finance can use its large reserve assets to defend the yen. He added that Japan's Ministry of Finance has said it is working closely with the U.S. to push dollar-yen lower. In Hayes's view, officials are signaling support for a change in global currency relationships, something he said markets should watch closely.

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