July U.S. consumer inflation is expected to show only a modest increase, with economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting headline CPI to rise 0.1% month over month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Lower gasoline prices appear to be the main force limiting price growth, potentially reducing financial market speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year after last week's weaker-than-expected employment report. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to increase 0.2% in July after being flat in June, for a 2.5% annual gain. Goods prices including home furnishings and apparel, along with firmer prices for used cars and trucks, education and communication goods, and airfares, are seen supporting the increase, while rents are expected to rise moderately. Economists are split on whether hotel and motel costs will keep falling. The outlook is complicated by geopolitics: the U.S. is a net crude oil exporter and shrinking petroleum inventories have softened the hit from Middle East-driven oil shocks, but the unresolved war involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran is keeping upside inflation risks in focus. Analysts also note that the Fed targets the PCE price index rather than CPI, and some still expect monetary tightening in September.