Eurozone bond yields edge higher before U.S. CPI as Fed September odds hover near 53%

Eurozone government bond yields moved higher and U.S. markets were largely steady ahead of U.S. CPI inflation data due at 1230 GMT, with investors focused on whether the release will shift expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate increase in September. Markets were pricing roughly even odds of a September move, with LSEG data showing a 52.5% to 53% chance of a 25 basis-point hike. IG analysts said the inflation figures could indicate whether the Fed might bring forward an interest-rate increase as soon as September, while Danske Bank’s Jens Naervig Pedersen said the data may reduce uncertainty because pricing for the September meeting is finely balanced. A Wall Street Journal survey of economists expects annual U.S. inflation to ease to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. In Europe, 10-year Bund yields rose 1.1 basis points to 3.159% and 10-year French government bond yields climbed 1.2 basis points to 3.978%, according to Tradeweb. In the United States, the DXY dollar index traded at 99.873 and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.682%, below Tuesday’s 11-day high of 4.735%.

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