Novo shares fall despite guidance lift as CEO points to Lilly market-share gains

Novo Nordisk shares continued to struggle even after the drugmaker raised its full-year sales guidance on August 4, with NVO stock falling roughly 6% that day despite narrowing its projected annual decline to 3% from 8% at the midpoint. CEO Mike Doustdar said the market reaction reflects a basic pricing and volume problem: Novo cut prices on Ozempic and Wegovy last year to expand patient access, but prescription growth has not yet risen enough to fully offset lower average revenue per prescription. He also acknowledged that Eli Lilly has been taking market share and benefits from greater diversification, leaving Novo more exposed because obesity and diabetes medicines account for around 90% of its business, versus about 60% at Lilly. Oral Wegovy, launched in January, has become a major bright spot, with more than 5 million prescriptions written and 1.5 million patients taking it worldwide. Doustdar said Lilly’s advertising compares itself with an older, lower-dose Wegovy, while Novo’s newer high-dose version matches Lilly’s efficacy; that disagreement is central to Novo’s lawsuit over Lilly’s ad claims. In Novo’s own trials, oral Wegovy reduced weight by 17% compared with 12% for Lilly’s rival pill, though the products have not been tested head-to-head. Doustdar said two consecutive quarters of improving trends could eventually help the stock recover, but investors appear focused on whether patient volume can outpace the impact of price cuts quickly enough to show the reset is over.

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