Dollar-yen rebounds to 159.56 after weak U.S. data and soft 30-year auction

Dollar-yen briefly fell to 159.02 in New York trading on the 13th after U.S. economic data came in below expectations, then recovered to 159.56 as a weak 30-year Treasury auction stopped the drop in long-term yields and triggered dollar buybacks. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000 for the prior week, above the 202,000 forecast and a one-month high, while July producer inflation cooled: headline PPI was flat month over month and up 4.7% year over year, both below expectations, and core PPI rose 0.2% on the month, also missing forecasts. Together with the previous day's CPI, the figures reinforced the view that price pressures are easing and that the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged at the September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. Some market participants say a continued slowdown in inflation could bring forward expectations for Fed rate cuts, while others argue that fiscal deficit concerns, highlighted by the soft 30-year auction, may keep upward pressure on long-term yields. Other major pairs were mixed, with euro-dollar touching $1.1545 before easing to $1.1524. Attention now shifts to U.S. July retail sales and the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on the 14th as traders assess whether consumer spending can stay resilient during disinflation (slowing price growth).

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