Kaito faces a fresh token supply overhang after crypto analyst cryptopainter said a Kaito-linked address, base:0x98d0baa52b2d063e780de12f615f963fe8537553, is scheduled to unlock 18.53 million tokens on Aug. 20, followed by another 6.58 million on Sept. 16 and 17. The analyst said recent positive announcements paired with a price push and distribution looked like price manipulation, marking a shift from a previously constructive view on the project to a more critical stance. Cryptopainter said the main test for Kaito now is whether its new product ecosystem can actually launch and regain social traction and scale close to 2025 levels; even a recovery to 50% of that would, in the analyst's view, still support Kaito's standing as an InfoFi (information-finance sector) leader and make re-entering positions more convincing. If product delivery disappoints and ecosystem participation remains average, the analyst said there is no plan for renewed restaking (reusing staked assets for added yield). The analyst added that most of the large unlock appears to have already been hedged and closed out, meaning spot supply may not yet be fully reflected in the market. In that framework, a clearer release signal would be spot trading well below futures, a sharply positive funding rate (periodic payment in perpetual futures), and heavy-volume price declines. Until those signs emerge, the analyst said there is little reason to participate and advised investors to wait until at least after October before reassessing, while warning recent dip buyers to stay cautious.