The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has intensified, disrupting global energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reports that the resulting crisis is affecting oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) flows, while the International Energy Agency has described it as the largest supply disruption in global oil-market history. Market pricing suggests a lower likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic agreement across several prediction-market sub-markets, with energy-security concerns and the risk of further military escalation potentially undermining negotiations. Traders are watching statements from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, any additional military action by Israel or Iran, and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Vera offers live prediction-market analysis related to the developments.