The United States is reportedly considering stricter measures to economically isolate Iran, including secondary sanctions (penalties on third parties trading with a target country) aimed at countries that continue doing business with Tehran. China is the primary focus because of its significant purchases of Iranian oil exports. Such action could reduce Iran’s revenue, but it could also prompt retaliation from Beijing as President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington approaches. Analysts warn that the escalation could complicate U.S.-Iran negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Market pricing indicates lower confidence that a U.S.-Iran deal will be reached in 2026, while possible increases in U.S.-China tensions are adding uncertainty to related prediction markets. Observers are watching for official announcements from Washington, Xi’s upcoming visit and further developments in the nuclear negotiations. Vera offers live prediction-market analysis and invites users to sign up.