Lyn Alden says Bitcoin bottom is in as 4.4-sigma move signals rebound

Macro analyst Lyn Alden told CNBC that Bitcoin's bottom is in by almost every metric and that "the bull market is back in play." Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo said on X that Alden sees fast money as having exited, Strategy as unlikely to sell and few major downside catalysts remaining. She also described potential moves by the Treasury and Fed toward financial repression as a bullish backdrop for Bitcoin. Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts said this week's two-day move ranked as the fifth-largest since 2018 on a volatility-adjusted basis, at 4.4 sigma, a level that ordinary counter-trend rallies generally do not produce. Comparable moves occurred at the 2018 and 2019 cycle lows, which became inflection points rather than temporary rebounds; historically, Bitcoin finished higher more than 70% of the time in the following 30 to 180 days after moves of this size. Coutts identified overhead supply in the low $80,000 range as the main hurdle before a further advance. He also said Bitcoin is again acting as an early indicator of liquidity direction after a Treasury bond buyback shifted a backdrop that was close to turning negative, weakened the dollar and pulled down the yield curve. The underlying debt-supply problem remains unresolved, suggesting further intervention may be ahead. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $606.29 million of inflows on Aug. 20, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $502.99 million, the largest one-day inflow since May 1, according to SoSoValue. Weekly inflows surpassed $1.6 billion with one trading day remaining, making it the strongest week of 2026 and the best since the week of October 10, 2025.

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