Only one ship has reportedly transited the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing crisis linked to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, indicating a severe disruption to commercial shipping through the strategic waterway. The strait is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and heightened military tension, attacks and a U.S. naval blockade are increasing risks for commercial vessels. Markets appear to be pricing in a lower likelihood that traffic will return to normal by September 30, with YES outcomes for normalization at 5.5%. Continued disruption could affect global oil logistics and lift tanker rates. Observers are expected to watch diplomatic developments, including official statements from Iran or the U.S. on maritime safety assurances or a potential ceasefire, as well as further attacks and their impact on oil markets and tanker rates.