Forty tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night, suggesting that access to the key shipping chokepoint remains possible but precarious. Markets are focusing increasingly on diesel supply and logistics risks rather than transit alone, amid continued tensions between Iran and the United States, recent conflicts and maritime instability. A prediction market (market-based forecast of an event) now gives Strait of Hormuz traffic a 5.5% YES probability of returning to normal by September 30, down from 14% a week earlier. The pricing reflects skepticism that traffic will quickly return to pre-crisis levels and indicates that markets are factoring in the possibility of further disruption. Developments in U.S.-Iran relations, including diplomatic efforts or escalations, along with statements from the Iranian government, U.S. officials or international maritime organizations, could reshape expectations. Verified ceasefire developments or new threats are likely to influence the market's outlook. The analysis is presented as powered by Vera, which invites users to sign up for live prediction-market analysis.