Samsung Electronics is expected to overtake Apple as the world’s leading smartphone maker by shipments this year, after surrendering the annual lead to Apple last year. Counterpoint Research said on the 24th that Samsung’s shipments are projected to increase 0.8% from a year earlier, while Apple’s are forecast to decline 2.1%. Samsung’s broad product range, regional sales base, in-house component sourcing, and carrier and distribution networks are seen as giving it greater flexibility as component prices rise and supply-chain uncertainty persists. The global smartphone market is expected to contract 14.3% this year and a further 1.4% next year, driven by higher costs for mobile memory and chipsets. Budget and mid-range devices are likely to bear most of the decline, while demand for premium products is expected to hold up relatively well. Major Chinese smartphone makers, which depend heavily on lower-priced models and price-sensitive markets, are forecast to see shipments fall 15% to 34%. Apple’s potential iPhone 18 price increases and changes to individual model release schedules remain variables. Its first foldable iPhone is expected in the third quarter of this year, but projected initial shipments of only a few million units would limit its effect on annual shipments. Counterpoint expects the market to return to growth from 2028, when improved component supply and stabilized retail prices could unlock demand deferred in 2026 and 2027, lifting global shipments by about 4.8%.