The United States is encountering significant military and diplomatic obstacles in its ongoing conflict with Iran, Reuters reported, complicating the prospects for future negotiations and agreements. Market pricing indicates a lower probability of a 2026 US-Iran deal that would include reconstruction funding. The assessment is consistent with scenarios in which operational challenges reduce the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement this year. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key point of tension. Observers are expected to watch changes in US-Iran diplomatic engagement, developments involving US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, activity around the Strait of Hormuz, and any new military actions by Israel. Those developments could either support or undermine the inclusion of reconstruction funding in a future agreement.