Forex markets hold steady as traders await Jackson Hole Fed signals

Forex markets are trading in narrow ranges on Thursday as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium, which begins later today. The dollar index is near 101.5, while the Japanese yen remains under pressure at around 145.30 per dollar. Traders are focused on whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday keynote will signal a 25-basis-point or potentially more aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut, or a slower, data-dependent approach. CME FedWatch data as of Thursday implies about a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September. The euro is at 1.0840 against the dollar, the British pound at 1.2750, the Australian dollar at 0.6650 and USD/CHF near 0.8650. The yen is being watched for possible intervention risk because it remains near levels that prompted official action by Tokyo in 2022. The CBOE FX Volatility Index remains subdued, reflecting a cautious market. Powell’s guidance could trigger sharp moves in major currency pairs, particularly USD/JPY, while policy challenges facing the European Central Bank and Bank of England may contribute to divergent currency trends in coming weeks.

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