August CPI, jobs data and U.S. sentiment put markets on alert

A dense schedule of economic indicators on the 28th will give markets fresh signals on inflation, employment, consumer confidence and monetary policy across Japan, Europe, the United States and emerging markets. Japan’s August Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise 1.9% year on year, slowing from 2.0%, while the July unemployment rate is expected to remain at 2.5% and the effective job openings-to-applicants ratio to edge up to 1.19x from 1.18x. The data will be released at 8:30 a.m., followed by the disclosure of foreign exchange intervention operations at 7:00 p.m. covering July 30 to August 26, an important test of whether Japanese authorities intervened during continued yen volatility. Overseas releases include Germany’s August unemployment rate, forecast at 6.4%, the Eurozone’s August economic sentiment index, expected at 96.9, and India’s July industrial production, forecast to increase 7.3% year on year. Brazil will publish its August FGV inflation IGPM, expected at -1.16%, as well as credit and loan data, including a previous credit balance of 7.356 trillion reais and a personal loan default rate of 7.6%. The United States will release the August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, forecast at 51, unchanged from the previous reading, alongside a preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls. The U.S. figures could affect expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and influence currency and equity markets.

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