The won-dollar exchange rate is expected to trade in a narrow range around 1,380 won on the 28th as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Seoul Money Brokerage Services said the one-month won-dollar contract was last quoted at 1,381.7 won in the overnight New York non-deliverable forward market. After accounting for a recent one-month swap point of minus 0.25 won, the rate is expected to open 1.05 won above the previous session’s 1,380.9-won close at 3:30 p.m. Warsh’s comments on inflation and further rate hikes are expected to determine whether the dollar strengthens or weakens. The probability of a September Fed rate hike has fallen to the 30% range after recent U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations. July personal consumption expenditures inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; revised second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 1.5% quarter over quarter, and private consumption rose 3.4%, reinforcing views of resilient domestic demand. U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 203,000, supporting the dollar, while an overnight rally in New York stocks, led by Nvidia’s 8.7% surge after stronger-than-expected earnings and an upbeat revenue outlook, could support the won. South Korean equity inflows, particularly into semiconductor stocks, may increase dollar selling and won buying. The Bank of Korea’s rate increase from 2.75% to 3.00% narrowed the South Korea-U.S. interest-rate gap, but its more dovish-than-expected future policy path limited the won’s gains. Month-end exporter dollar selling may cap the exchange rate, while importer demand below 1,380 won could limit further won appreciation. Market participants expect a broader range from the high 1,370s to the low 1,390s depending on Warsh’s remarks, with trading likely to stay centered near 1,380 won before the speech.