Hormuz crisis drives energy diversification as 20% of oil trade faces risk

  • Iran threatened ships using the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes on Iran.
  • Oil prices reached $126 per barrel, below forecasts of $150 to $200.
  • The IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles in March.

The Iran war revealed the global economy’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, a roughly 20-mile-wide waterway between Iran and Oman that carried about a fifth of global oil trade before the conflict. More than 80% of that cargo was destined for Asia, especially China, India, Japan and South Korea. Iran’s threat to attack ships using the channel after U.S. strikes prompted Asian governments to restrict exports, reduce import duties and ration fuel. Severe shortages, widespread power outages and grounded flights did not materialize, helped by increased production and substantial emergency stockpiles, although oil prices reached $126 per barrel. The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels in March, its largest intervention of that kind, while the U.S., Saudi Arabia and the UAE raised production and carrying capacity. China also drew on its reserves, increasing its influence over global oil markets. The crisis is nevertheless pushing importers and exporters to diversify. Japan is expanding LNG (liquefied natural gas) investments in Australia, while Gulf producers are developing ports and pipelines that could reduce the share of global oil moving through Hormuz from 20% to 10%. Gas faces greater disruption risks than oil because LNG cannot use the same alternative pipeline routes. Qatar is working through diplomacy, customer diversification and contingency planning to protect its LNG exports. Analysts say the resilience of the market may not last if the strait remains closed and tensions between Iran and the U.S. intensify. Saul Kavonic of MST Financial compared the response to using an oil-market credit card that could be exhausted within months. Fortune will address the implications of a more complex geopolitical environment for Asian businesses at its Fortune Leaders Forum in Macau on Sep. 8.

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