Kalshi's September Federal Reserve market showed a 47% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase and a 54% probability of unchanged rates after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh voiced concern about persistent inflation during his Friday speech at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The hike probability had been 30% before Warsh's remarks. Kalshi also priced a 66% chance of another Fed hike before 2027, 78% before July 2027 and 83% before 2028. Warsh made no explicit commitment about the September decision, but said recent inflation readings had not demonstrated meaningful improvement in underlying trends. CME Group's FedWatch tool separately lifted its September hike probability to 55.7%, about 20 percentage points above the previous day. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack and other officials have also argued that rates may need to be higher to contain inflation, leaving traders to assess whether September could bring the Fed's first rate increase of the year.