Fed Chair Warsh reaffirms 2% inflation target by 2026

  • Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to a 2% inflation target by 2026.
  • Inflation reached 3.7% in July 2026, measured by the 12-month PCE price index.
  • Markets now price lower chances of rate cuts at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation is not decelerating and reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to reaching a 2% inflation target by 2026. Inflation was 3.7% in July 2026, measured by the 12-month Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.5% to 3.75%, Warsh’s position leaves open the possibility that rates could remain unchanged or rise if inflation fails to move toward the target. Prediction-market pricing indicates a lower perceived chance of rate cuts at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, although odds for a cut at the October 28, 2026 meeting have fluctuated significantly. Investors will focus on upcoming PCE and CPI data, the September 2026 FOMC Dot Plot, and further Federal Reserve communications for indications of policy changes or shifts in the economic outlook.

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