Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 16 meeting strengthened after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh warned that recent improvements in inflation data did not demonstrate a lasting change in underlying price pressures. Forecasting markets put the chance of rates remaining unchanged at around 55%, a 25-basis-point increase at about 46%, and a larger hike at roughly 1%. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of a September hike at 55.7%, up approximately 20 basis points in one day. Warsh made the comments at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, saying inflation remained high and that the central bank must see clearer and faster progress toward its target. He did not provide direct guidance on upcoming decisions or specify which economic data would determine them. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose about 8 basis points to 4.31%, its highest level since the end of July, as investors priced a greater chance of tighter policy. New inflation and employment data due before the meeting are expected to be critical: stronger-than-expected inflation would support hike expectations, while a significant easing in price pressures could reinforce expectations for unchanged rates.