War drives global oil and gas import bill up as much as $330 billion

  • The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran increased global energy import costs.
  • $330 billion was the maximum additional import bill recorded from March through August.
  • CREA said the Persian Gulf disruption was the largest since the 1990 Gulf War.

The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran increased the world’s oil and gas import bill by as much as $330 billion during the six months from March through August, based on the difference between actual payments and analysts’ prewar price expectations. The Finland-based climate think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) described the disruption in the Persian Gulf as the largest since the 1990 Gulf War, with the European Union suffering the biggest financial impact. Crude oil accounted for $164.1 billion of the additional cost, followed by diesel and gasoil at $73.8 billion, gasoline at $35.7 billion, liquefied natural gas (LNG) at $38 billion and jet fuel at $20 billion. The EU paid $78 billion more than expected, while China and India paid an additional $35 billion and $22 billion, respectively. China reduced imports and drew on stockpiles estimated at 1 billion to 1.4 billion barrels at the start of the year, helping limit the oil-price shock. India was exposed through its dependence on Middle Eastern crude and disruption after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes. CREA said its calculations measured commodities actually purchased, rather than hypothetical purchases without the war. LNG prices averaged 75% above prewar expectations in Asia and 60% higher in Europe, while refinery disruptions could keep fuel costs elevated after the conflict ends. The International Energy Agency estimated that hostilities had removed as much as one-fifth of Middle Eastern refining capacity, or about 9.6 million barrels per day. Wind, solar and other low-carbon energy sources offset $36 billion of import costs during the period.

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