Overnight hostilities between the United States and Iran were described by an anonymous senior Iranian source as a limited and contained confrontation. The source said Iran is prepared to respond strongly if further provoked. The developments have renewed concerns over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route whose past disruptions have affected global oil markets. Prediction-market pricing places the chance of a U.S.-Iran agreement to restore normal traffic through the Strait at 0.4% YES by August 31, rising to 4.8% by September 16 and 10.5% by October 1. The pricing suggests markets see an agreement as unlikely in the near term, while the statement is being interpreted as evidence that tensions remain elevated. Observers will monitor statements and actions by Iranian and U.S. officials, with a joint statement or formal ceasefire extension potentially supporting a YES outcome, and renewed hostilities or indications of restricted Strait access supporting NO. Reuters and other wire-service updates could alter market perceptions. The analysis is powered by Vera, which invites users to sign up for live prediction-market coverage.