Prediction markets have sharply reduced the implied probability that the CLARITY Act will pass and become law in 2026, with Polymarket pricing the outcome at 13% versus 82% in February. The U.S. Senate plans a procedural vote on Sept. 15, based on a motion to end debate introduced by majority leader John Thune; such motions typically require 60 votes. Kalshi places the probability of a Senate vote before Oct. 1 at 91%. The legislation would establish a federal framework for crypto-market oversight, giving the CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator) exclusive authority over spot digital commodities while leaving the SEC (U.S. securities regulator) responsible for certain securities offerings and exchange activities. Disputes remain over officials' and crypto-industry interests, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance and protections for non-custodial software developers.