UK 10-year gilt (UK government bond) yields rose above 5.2%, their highest level since June 2008, amid a wider global bond sell-off. Rising oil prices, renewed Middle East hostilities and increasingly hawkish signals from major central banks have strengthened expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates. Markets are pricing about 32 basis points of Bank of England (BoE, the UK central bank) tightening by year-end, with a November increase seen as almost 70% likely and a second hike by February priced at around 80%. The latest British Retail Consortium report also showed UK shop-price inflation accelerating to its highest level in two years. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had not slowed meaningfully and that the Fed still had “work to do,” leading markets to price a 66% probability of a September rate hike.