Iran’s President offered a peace overture as the United States resumed attacks on Larak Island, targeting Iranian military assets. Central Command described the operation as a “limited, precise” strike intended to disrupt Iranian operations around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The action came during the ongoing 2026 Iran–United States war, which has included intermittent ceasefire attempts and renewed military escalations. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards vowed retaliation, increasing the risk of further conflict despite the diplomatic gesture. Prediction-market pricing now indicates weaker expectations for peace talks by September 30, 2026. Markets are watching statements from U.S. and Iranian officials and possible mediation by Pakistan and Qatar; renewed diplomacy could improve pricing for a YES outcome, while continued escalation could further reduce expectations for near-term talks.