Dollar steady as September Fed hike bets jump to 74%

  • U.S. dollar held steady as investors reassessed Federal Reserve and Japanese rate prospects.
  • 74%: Bloomberg swaps pricing chance of a September Federal Reserve hike, up from 34%.
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Canada decisions are due Wednesday.

The U.S. dollar held broadly steady in European trading as investors balanced stronger Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations with pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for Japan to raise rates. The dollar index was little changed at 99.51 after Bessent’s G20 comments tempered some of the hawkish momentum from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. Bloomberg swaps pricing put the chance of a September hike at 74%, up from 34% before Warsh’s speech, while CME FedWatch showed 65%, compared with 41% a week earlier. DBS analysts estimated the odds at about 67%. The euro fell 0.11% to $1.1604 and the pound slipped to $1.3542. DBS said Warsh is now viewed as meaningfully more hawkish, making this week’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and next week’s inflation data important ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 decision, due at 2 a.m. SGT. The rate repricing contributed to a broad bond selloff, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising 3 basis points to 4.8%, its highest since January 2025. Japan’s 10-year yield reached 3%, a three-decade high, while Australia’s 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2011. Brent crude rose 0.7% to about $91.10 a barrel after direct U.S.-Iran strikes resumed, adding to inflation concerns. Asian currencies were mixed: the yuan was little changed despite stronger private Chinese manufacturing data, the rupee strengthened 0.34% against the dollar, and the yen weakened to just below 160 per dollar. Markets priced a 73% chance of a Bank of Japan hike later this month. Attention turns to Wednesday’s central-bank decisions, Friday’s U.S. jobs report and next week’s inflation data.

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