Iran activated air defenses over eastern Tehran amid heightened military tensions, according to reports from social media sources. The move followed a series of retaliatory strikes and came as Tehran remained a frequent target in the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States. Market pricing indicated increased expectations of a full airspace closure by September 30, with YES contracts rising from 10% to 16.5%. The situation remains unconfirmed by the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran or Iranian State Television, making official statements, NOTAMs (official aviation notices) and reports on commercial flights important indicators for markets tracking a potential closure. De-escalation statements from Donald Trump or resumed commercial flights could instead support a NO outcome. Vera provides live prediction-market analysis related to the developments.