Glassnode sees Bitcoin range-bound between $62,000 support and $83,000-$86,000 supply

  • Glassnode links Bitcoin’s August rebound to a short squeeze and a move above $80,000.
  • $290 million was the peak daily seven-day average net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
  • September 25 quarterly Deribit and IBIT options had about $14 billion open interest.

Bitcoin’s mid-August rebound, driven by a short squeeze (rapid covering of bearish bets), carried the price above $80,000 on August 27 before overhead supply pushed it back toward $76,000 and triggered successive long liquidations. Glassnode identifies $83,000-$86,000 as a major zone containing potential short liquidations, while $60,000-$63,000 holds an unabsorbed concentration of long liquidations. On-chain data shows that 65% of Bitcoin’s supply was profitable when the asset traded near $78,000 in May, rising to 68% when it returned to that level in late August. Summer redistribution lifted short-term holders’ cost basis (average acquisition price) to about $71,000, meaning that price now activates more profitable holdings and could increase selling pressure. Glassnode places accumulation support at $62,000-$65,000 and concentrated long-term-holder supply at $83,000-$86,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached a peak seven-day average net inflow of $290 million per day during the rebound, while secondary-market daily turnover remained near $3 billion, well below the earlier expansion phase. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell to 4.6% after the Treasury buyback news on August 19, then returned to 4.8% in eight trading days, setting a new high for the current cycle. Short-term optimism in the options market has cooled, although demand for longer-dated options remains. Deribit and IBIT options expiring quarterly on September 25 had about $14 billion in open interest (active outstanding derivatives contracts), with substantial positions above $80,000. Until supply above $83,000-$86,000 is absorbed, Glassnode expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound, with $62,000-$65,000 serving as the main downside reference area.

当サイトの情報はAIを用いて生成されており、正確性を保証するものではありません。 参考情報としてご活用ください。