Bitcoin’s August rally has weakened since the start of September, briefly sending the price below $77,000 after it reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since May. Kalshi traders now put the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 at 25%. BTC had gained around 23% over the last 30 trading days, according to CoinGecko, supported by strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds holding Bitcoin directly). That momentum has reversed, with the funds recording outflows on two of the past three trading days and net outflows exceeding $220 million, according to CoinGlass. Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and expectations of a September rate hike have also weighed on sentiment. Kalshi traders recently assigned a 23% chance to Bitcoin reaching $110,000 before year-end, but that probability has since fallen to 12% for surpassing $109,999.99, while the odds of a new all-time high above $129,999.99 stand at 5%. Despite the pullback, traders still view $100,000 as more likely than $50,000 as Bitcoin’s next major threshold: the odds of reaching $50,000 before $100,000 are 14%, down from a high of 63% in early August. Upcoming market catalysts include the U.S. August jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision on September 16 and 17. Kalshi prices a 53% chance of nonfarm payroll growth exceeding 40,000 jobs, alongside a 59% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike and 41% odds of unchanged rates.