With less than two weeks before the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 policy meeting, the vote is finely balanced between holding rates and raising them. Bianco Research founder Jim Bianco says the policy debate is effectively a vote count, with Fed Governor Waller recently leaning toward keeping rates unchanged. His tally stands at six votes to maintain rates, five for a hike and one unknown vote from former Chair Powell, who remains a Federal Reserve governor after his chair term ended May 15. Powell has not spoken publicly since the May press conference, making his position the key uncertainty. Bianco said the probability of a hike is effectively 50/50, after predicting on Aug. 30 that the meeting could produce a 7-5 result in either direction. He linked the unusually visible split to former President Trump’s continuing criticism of the Federal Reserve and concerns about its independence. No 6-6 Fed vote has occurred since 1936; the closest precedents were 6-5 outcomes in 1963, 1964 and 1973. The Federal Reserve Act does not specify how a tie should be handled, though Bianco suggested the likely result would be unchanged rates or additional votes until a decision is reached.