Nomura keeps Buy ratings on Samsung, SK Hynix as memory shortage extends through 2028

  • Nomura maintained Buy ratings and target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
  • 37%: Both stocks have declined roughly this amount from their peaks.
  • NAND market revenue grew 70% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, Counterpoint Research reported.

Nomura Securities maintained its "Buy" rating on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, setting target prices of ₩670,000 and ₩4.7 million, or approximately $490 and $3,500, respectively. The brokerage said both shares have fallen roughly 37% from their peaks and trade at an average of just three times projected 2027 price-to-earnings ratios, which it considers severely undervalued. Nomura expects the memory shortage to persist through 2028 as artificial intelligence investment drives unprecedented demand, while global production capacity would need to double to 7.2 million wafers per month within four years and triple to 11 million within six years. Five-year contracts with Big Tech customers, including prepayments of 20% to 30% and penalties, are giving suppliers greater earnings visibility, while customers accept price ceilings as much as 20% above current levels. A stronger Korean won remains a near-term risk because memory companies receive dollar revenue but incur about 20% of revenue in won-denominated costs. Nomura cut its third-quarter operating-profit forecast for SK Hynix to ₩77 trillion from ₩86 trillion and projected Samsung Electronics' operating profit at ₩107 trillion, while saying higher memory average selling prices should offset currency pressure. In NAND Flash, Counterpoint Research reported 70% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth and a 55% price increase in the second quarter. Samsung led with 28% market share, followed by SK Hynix at 19%, while Micron rose to 15% and Kioxia and YMTC reached 14% each. The growth was driven mainly by contract-price increases as manufacturers prioritized high-margin enterprise products for AI data centers, tightening consumer SSD supply. Market consensus expects NAND prices to stabilize genuinely only by 2027 if AI demand remains intact.

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