Euro holds above $1.16 as markets await US jobs data and ECB decision

  • Euro remained above $1.16 as investors awaited US employment data.
  • 2.5% was Germany’s July factory-orders increase, versus 0.3% expected.
  • ECB meeting is set for September 10, with markets pricing two increases by June 2027.

The euro stabilized just above $1.16 on Friday as investors awaited US employment data and shifted attention to the European Central Bank (ECB, the euro-zone central bank) meeting on September 10. Money markets fully price a 25-basis-point hike, or 0.25 percentage points, next week, taking the ECB rate to 2.5%. They also assign an almost 100% probability to the deposit rate reaching 3% by June 2027, implying two additional increases by mid-2027. Germany’s factory orders rose 2.5% in July, below an upwardly revised 3.7% increase in June but well above the 0.3% market forecast. The dollar remained under pressure after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said recent data showed signs of disinflation and that he would favor leaving interest rates unchanged at this month’s policy meeting if upcoming figures confirmed the trend.

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