WTI crude surges 8.8% as U.S.-Iran hostilities disrupt Hormuz traffic

  • WTI and Brent advanced as intensified U.S.-Iran confrontations disrupted energy markets.
  • Four commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz Thursday versus a 10-day average of 15.
  • Citigroup raised its third-quarter Brent forecast to $86 per barrel from $80.

Oil prices remained near six-week highs Friday despite modest intraday declines, as escalating military confrontations between Washington and Tehran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude was near $95.15 a barrel, down 0.4% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6% to $90.77. Brent gained 6.6% for the week and WTI rose 8.8%, its strongest seven-day performance since mid-July, with the key takeaways describing WTI as poised for a roughly 10% weekly surge. The confrontations, ongoing for seven months, intensified in recent days as U.S. forces targeted sites near the waterway and Iranian forces launched missile and drone strikes against U.S. and coalition installations in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Shipping fell to four commercial cargo vessels on Thursday, compared with a 10-day average of about 15, despite U.S. administration claims that maritime traffic had largely normalized. Vice President JD Vance said Washington would not engage diplomatically with Tehran until attacks on international shipping stop immediately. Diesel prices reached unprecedented levels, adding to inflation expectations and pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell to 424.5 million barrels in the week ended August 28 from 428.9 million the previous week. Citigroup lifted its third-quarter Brent forecast to $86 a barrel from $80, while ANZ raised its near-term outlook to $95 and warned of further upside if hostilities worsen. OPEC+ is expected to maintain its October production strategy when it meets Sunday, while Iraqi oil shipments rose to about 2.34 million barrels a day in August from 1.35 million in July.

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