Citigroup delays next Fed rate-cut forecast to June 2027 after strong jobs data

  • Citigroup pushed its next Federal Reserve rate-cut forecast back to June 2027.
  • U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
  • Fed funds futures priced a 61% chance of a September 15-16 rate hike.

Citigroup moved its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut to June 2027 after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data indicated that the labor market remains resilient. The brokerage now expects 25-basis-point cuts in June, September and December 2027, abandoning its previous forecast for reductions in October and December 2026 and January 2027. U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Citi, a longstanding Fed dove, said policymakers would likely view employment conditions as broadly stable and concentrate on inflation. Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark said labor force participation had rebounded noticeably. Fed funds futures (contracts tracking expected policy rates) put the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting at 61%, up from 52% before the jobs report. Investors will next assess CPI and PPI data for indications about the Fed’s interest-rate path.

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