CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper warned the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that the United States would impose a greater economic cost if Iranian forces attacked two U.S. ships, including by targeting three Iranian vessels. He said U.S. forces would defend themselves and could destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet. The warning comes during a tense standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. has been enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, following previous U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and retaliatory actions by Iran. The statement points to a possible increase in military action and may reduce the prospects for a diplomatic U.S.-Iran agreement that includes reconstruction funding. Market pricing has recently placed lower odds on such a deal. Observers are watching for direct clashes, new strikes and diplomatic talks, with developments potentially affecting views of a U.S.-Iran deal by the end of 2026. U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif could play important roles in future negotiations or escalations.