US envoys have concluded talks in Moscow, including a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and are set to hold further discussions in Ukraine. The engagement reflects a high-level U.S. diplomatic effort to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although it produced no immediate ceasefire agreement. Market activity has become more optimistic, with prediction-market pricing showing a 27% YES probability of a ceasefire by December 31, 2026, up from previous levels. The negotiations involve Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as members of President Donald Trump’s peace envoy team. Observers are watching the upcoming Ukraine talks, statements from US President Donald Trump or Russian President Vladimir Putin, and any direct engagement between Ukrainian and Russian leaders for signs of movement in the negotiations.