Bitcoin needs either a de-escalation of Middle East tensions or a further decline in confidence in U.S. Treasuries to decisively break above and hold $80,000, according to James Butterfill, head of research at crypto asset manager CoinShares, in a September 4 market update. Bitcoin briefly exceeded $82,000 before stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data pushed it back toward $79,000-$80,000. The market is balancing speculation about U.S. monetary policy against Middle East risks, with investors watching the Producer Price Index on September 10, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 15-16. Butterfill said Bitcoin has recently tracked gold as concerns about U.S. fiscal health and Treasury purchases revive the currency debasement trade, in which investors buy hard assets to hedge against weakening currency value. Bitcoin rose from the low $60,000s to the high $70,000s and briefly reached $80,100 after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. However, perceived hawkishness from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on August 28 raised expectations for a September rate hike, while Waller said he would support holding rates steady if August inflation data showed improvement. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated near 4.7% and later approached 4.8%, while Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996. Crypto asset ETP (exchange-traded investment product) flows swung from approximately $100 million in outflows after Warsh's comments to $1 billion in inflows that week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $236.5 million net outflow on September 1, followed by net inflows of $101.1 million, $730.8 million and $174.6 million on September 2, 3 and 4, respectively, bringing September's cumulative inflows to $770 million over four trading days. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted $454 million on September 3. Korbit head of research Kang Dong-hyun said macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates and oil prices would probably have more influence on Bitcoin than policy events for the time being, despite a September 15 U.S. Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. Direct U.S.-Iran strikes late last month lifted international crude prices, while rising real interest rates sometimes pressured gold and Bitcoin simultaneously. August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, about three times the consensus estimate, briefly lifting the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 60%. Butterfill said that without a Middle East resolution or further deterioration in Treasury confidence, Bitcoin is most likely to remain range-bound. The $80,000 level has therefore become a test of confidence in the broader macroeconomic environment and international order, rather than simply a price target.