President Vladimir Putin has reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to continuing its military engagement in Ukraine after meeting US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to people familiar with the discussions. The meeting took place as aerial attacks continued, with Moscow and Kyiv still divided over territory and security guarantees despite US-mediated diplomatic efforts. A prediction market currently assigns a 20.5% probability to Russian forces entering Sloviansk by the end of 2026, with recent pricing changes indicating higher expectations of military developments. Further activity near the city, troop movements reported by Russian state media, satellite evidence of a military buildup, or changes in peace talks could affect that pricing. Vera is promoting live prediction-market analysis related to the situation.