Brent crude has rallied in September but remains below $100 a barrel despite renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities disrupting exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Middle East producers are shipping about 11 million barrels per day, down from 18 million bpd before the Iran war began seven months ago, according to Argus. Oil prices have been supported by tighter physical markets, while alternative export routes, additional output from the U.S., Canada and Guyana, and demand destruction have eased the wider supply impact. Analysts have raised forecasts, with Morgan Stanley expecting Brent to average $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter and Goldman Sachs projecting Brent at $85 a barrel for December 2026.