Dubai crude, the Middle Eastern benchmark oil mainly imported by South Korea, reached $105.39 a barrel on the 7th, its highest level in about three months and above the government’s assumptions for stabilizing inflation. The average price since July 1 rose to $84, compared with the government’s second-half forecast of $78, after prices climbed from the $60-$70 range in early July to $90 in August and above $100 in September. The increase followed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transport route, as the U.S. and Iran resumed attacks on each other from August. Analysts say prices would need to fall to around $74 from September through December to meet the government’s forecast, a decline of about 30% from current levels. Goldman Sachs said international oil prices could reach as high as $120 this year. Persistently high crude prices could push annual consumer-price inflation above the government’s 2.6% forecast. A Bank of Korea analysis put inflation at 2.8% under a pessimistic scenario involving a prolonged Middle East conflict. The impact of oil prices was already visible in August, when inflation reached 3.1%, industrial products rose 3.7% from a year earlier and petroleum products contributed 0.54 percentage points to consumer-price growth. If inflation and core inflation remain elevated, the Bank of Korea could consider raising its base rate from 3% to 3.25%, researcher Kim Myeong-sil of iM Securities said.