Republicans entered the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term with a firm Senate advantage, but control is now competitive less than two months before Election Day. Democrats need a net gain of four seats and are defending opportunities in Michigan and Maine while expanding their targets to Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio and North Carolina. Trump’s approval rating on the economy fell to 32% in July from 40% in March 2025, while trade policies, the war in Iran and higher fuel costs have increased voter concerns. Senate races are projected to generate $3.4 billion in advertising, up from an earlier $2.8 billion estimate. The result will shape Trump’s ability to advance his agenda and secure confirmations for administration positions and court vacancies.