Prediction-market traders sharply increased the odds of a formal artificial general intelligence (AGI) declaration after OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra. Kalshi traders put the probability of any company making such an announcement before April 1, 2027, at 62%, up from 32% a day earlier and briefly as high as 72%. On Polymarket, the odds of a declaration by Dec. 31, 2026, rose to 28% from 19% the previous day and 18 percentage points from a month earlier. The repricing followed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's September 7 statement that "AGI has arrived," citing the infrastructure used to train Astra, and OpenAI President Greg Brockman's comment that the company was "now moving into the AGI era." OpenAI says Astra delivers major gains on research, automation and novel-environment benchmarks, including a 99.9% score on ARC-AGI-3 versus 7.8% for the prior version. However, AGI remains contested, with no universally accepted definition or benchmark. Gary Marcus said Huang offered no evidence or definition, while critics noted Nvidia's commercial interest in portraying the moment as a new computing era. The episode also lifted South Korean AI-hardware stocks and reinforced debate over whether massive data-center and GPU spending can produce commensurate returns.