The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision next week could turn on small differences in inflation data, even though the most relevant PCE (personal consumption expenditures) reading will be released only after policymakers vote. Investors will focus on August producer prices Thursday and consumer prices Friday, with hotter readings supporting a hike and cooler monthly inflation potentially favoring a hold. Evercore ISI economics and central-bank policy chief Krishna Guha said core PCE around 0.21% or 0.22% could support holding rates, while an implied 0.23% or 0.24% reading could push the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) toward a hike. Dow Jones economists expect headline PPI to rise 0.4% monthly and 5.3% annually, while CPI is forecast at 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually, with core CPI at 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually. Guha sees a hold as fractionally more likely, partly because inflation may be cooler, but market pricing on Tuesday showed a 60% probability of a rate increase. The decision is also unfolding amid disagreement among Fed officials, President Donald Trump’s threat to cut trade with countries running a surplus against the U.S. if the Fed does not cut, and anticipated revisions that could reduce some inflation readings by a few tenths of a percent.