Australian dollar moves above $0.72 as RBA hike bets rise to 74%

  • Australian dollar edged above $0.72 toward a four-month high.
  • 74% probability of a 25-basis-point hike was priced for September 29.
  • Reserve Bank officials said inflation risks would shape the September rate debate.

The Australian dollar edged above $0.72 toward a four-month high as increasingly hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia signals strengthened expectations for another rate increase at the September 29 meeting. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the case for higher rates would be debated, while Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the bank had little tolerance for stronger inflation and might need a fourth hike this year. The RBA has already raised its cash rate, its benchmark interest rate, three times in 2026 as oil prices surged because of the Gulf conflict. Markets now assign a 74% probability to a 25-basis-point increase, up from less than 10% a month earlier, and fully price a November move. Stronger Chinese trade data also supported the Australian dollar, which is sensitive to China because China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

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