CME FedWatch puts September 25-basis-point hike odds at 60.2%

2026年9月10日00:17 (46d ago)

CME FedWatch estimates September Federal Reserve rate-outcome probabilities.
September probabilities are 39.8% unchanged and 60.2% for a 25-basis-point increase.
October probabilities are 28.3% unchanged, 54.3% for 25 basis points, and 17.3% for 50 basis points.

CME FedWatch, a market-based interest-rate probability tool, puts the chance of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged through September at 39.8%, while assigning a 60.2% probability to a cumulative 25-basis-point increase. For October, the tool shows a 28.3% probability of unchanged rates, a 54.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 17.3% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase. A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point.