Global markets reel as ECB hikes 25 basis points and oil tops $100

  • ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on September 10.
  • Saudi Arabia cut crude production by 1.9 million barrels per day to 6.238 million.
  • Markets will focus on US August CPI data before the September 15–16 Fed meeting.

Global markets faced a broad selloff on September 10 after the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its second increase since the Iran war erupted in February this year. The ECB cited persistent inflationary pressure from the Middle East conflict and warned that inflation risks remained tilted higher while growth risks pointed lower. Traders are pricing in the possibility of two more ECB hikes by mid-2027, as energy prices push eurozone inflation to its highest level in nearly three years. In the United States, August core PPI (producer-price inflation excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the 0.3% consensus forecast, while headline PPI increased 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year. Federal funds futures traders raised the implied probability of a rate hike next week to roughly 60%, sending Treasury yields higher and lifting the 30-year yield to 5.34%, its highest level since 2007. Saudi Arabia reported a 1.9 million-barrel-per-day production decline to OPEC (oil producers' group), taking output to 6.238 million barrels per day, its lowest level since 1990 and below the post-Gulf War low recorded in April this year. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel for the first time since July. Copper retreated from record highs as the White House continued weighing tariffs on refined copper, while the yen strengthened to 153.39 per dollar and gained 4% this month amid expectations of a faster Bank of Japan tightening cycle. Markets will next focus on Friday's US August CPI report and Germany's August inflation data, with both potentially influencing central-bank policy decisions.

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