CLARITY Act fight over crypto business separation puts 2026 passage odds at 17%

  • Democrats and Republicans dispute mandatory separation rules for vertically integrated crypto companies.
  • Polymarket traders price the CLARITY Act’s 2026 enactment odds at 17%.
  • Senate negotiations continue ahead of next week’s vote on the legislation.

The CLARITY Act faces a new dispute over whether crypto companies should be required to separate exchanges, brokerages and trading operations before next week’s Senate vote. The issue, known as vertical integration, has become a central point in negotiations, with Democrats seeking minimum standards from regulators and Republicans warning that the proposal could enable a future administration to break up crypto companies. The debate follows FTX’s 2022 collapse, when the overlap between its exchange and a trading firm controlled by Sam Bankman-Fried was a key factor. Duke University lecturing fellow and former Federal Reserve official Lee Reiners called the issue "the whole ballgame," while Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Vice President of US Policy Kara Calvert argued that separation alone does not necessarily improve consumer protection and could weaken risk management and cybersecurity. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) is negotiating with Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) and Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Sen. John Boozman (R-AR), but the dispute adds to an ethics standoff involving President Donald Trump's family crypto profits. Polymarket traders have priced the chance of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 17%. The CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator) is separately pursuing its own conflict-of-interest rule, leaving the industry facing continued regulatory uncertainty without a legislative agreement.

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CLARITY Act fight over crypto business separation puts 2026 passage odds at 17% - CoinPost Terminal