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Polymarket odds of 25 bps Fed hike jump to 81%

  • Polymarket raised the odds of a 25 bps Fed rate hike to 81%.
  • 81% was the probability assigned to a 25 bps increase.
  • August jobs data, UBS and Fed Chair Warsh shaped the shift.

Polymarket odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike rose to 81%, while the probability of no change fell to 18%. The repricing followed a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, a hawkish UBS forecast calling for two rate increases this year and Fed Chair Warsh's warning about inflation risks.

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